2025 Holiday Consumer Trends: Prudence and Digital Dominance

The 2025 holiday season in the U.S. is projected to see over a trillion dollars spent, but with a significant emphasis on cautious and value-driven choices due to lingering inflation and economic uncertainties.

Budget-Conscious Consumers:

Shoppers are prioritizing value and asking “Is this truly worth it?”.

• Surveys indicate a decrease in average seasonal spending for many.
• Generation Z plans to significantly cut holiday budgets due to a tough job market.
• Baby Boomers are an exception, intending to increase their spending.

Early Bird Shopping:

Consumers are starting gift-buying months in advance, often before November, to spread costs and secure promotions.

Mobile Commerce Dominance:

Smartphones are the primary shopping tool, expected to account for over half of all online holiday sales. Retailers must ensure seamless mobile experiences.

Experiences Over Material Goods:

There’s a growing preference for experience-based gifts (e.g., concert tickets, classes, retreats) and purpose-driven options, alongside cherished tangible gifts.

Sustainability as a Differentiator:

Brands demonstrating authentic ethical and sustainable practices are favored, with consumers wary of “greenwashing.”

2026 Shopping Behavior Forecast: AI Revolution and “Phygital” Integration

The 2026 forecast points to a highly technologically integrated and personalized retail landscape.

AI Personal Shoppers & Zero-Click Commerce:

By late 2026, AI-driven gift planning could manage nearly 70% of online holiday sales. AI assistants will offer hyper-personalized recommendations, compare prices, find deals, and execute purchases with minimal consumer interaction.

• Benefits: Unmatched convenience, hyper-personalized recommendations.
• Concerns: Data privacy and trust will be critical for retailers.

“Phygital” Retail:

Physical stores will transform into “experience and service hubs,” blurring the lines between digital and physical.

• Features: Augmented Reality (AR) try-ons, interactive displays, gamified loyalty programs.
• Omnichannel Standard: Seamless transitions between online browsing and in-store pickup (BOPIS) will be expected.

Social Shopping Expansion:

Platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube will become mainstream sales channels through live shopping, creator collaborations, and shoppable posts, heavily influencing product discovery and purchases, especially among younger demographics.

Sustainability as a Non-Negotiable Standard:

Ethical branding, eco-friendly packaging, and supply chain transparency will be essential. Digital Product Passports will provide detailed product lifecycle information, soon to be mandatory in Europe for some products. The circular economy and secondhand items will gain further traction, influenced by Generation Z.

Continued Value Prioritization:

Despite technological advancements, economic caution will ensure consumers continue to prioritize fairness, transparency, and products that offer genuine value. Private labels and promotions will remain popular.

Advanced Payments and Delivery:

Next-generation payment methods like expanded “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) and ubiquitous digital wallets will be common. Consumers will expect ultra-fast, potentially autonomous, delivery options.

The Big Takeaway

The 2025 and 2026 holiday seasons represent a significant transformation in retail, moving towards highly personalized, fast, and values-driven experiences powered by smart technology. Consumers will benefit from ultra-convenience but must remain vigilant about data privacy. Retailers must adapt by delivering seamless experiences and demonstrating authentic brand values.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What is “zero-click commerce”?

Zero-click commerce involves AI assistants or agents making purchases on behalf of consumers without direct website or app interaction, managing product comparisons, deals, and transactions based on predefined preferences.

Q2: How are physical stores changing in the “phygital” trend?

Physical stores are becoming “experience and service hubs” that integrate digital elements like AR try-ons, interactive displays, and gamified loyalty programs to create a seamless blend of online and offline shopping.

Q3: Why is sustainability becoming such a critical factor for brands?

Consumers, especially younger generations, demand ethical and sustainable practices. Transparency in eco-friendly processes, packaging, and supply chains is crucial, with tools like Digital Product Passports providing detailed product lifecycle information.

Q4: How is mobile commerce evolving for the holiday season?

Mobile commerce is expected to exceed half of all online holiday sales, with smartphones being the primary tool for browsing, price comparison, and purchasing. Social media platforms are also emerging as significant mobile shopping channels.

Q5: What role will AI play in holiday gift planning by late 2026?

By late 2026, AI could handle almost 70% of online holiday sales through AI-driven gift planning, offering hyper-personalized recommendations, price comparisons, deal finding, and purchase execution, while raising data privacy considerations.